The Orange Man. He's bad. Very, very bad!

[Peppermint Lounge]

Who is your information source, Froggy? A lot of insight there on what is and isn't statistically possible in local American jurisdictions.

Just watched Trump give his latest press conference. Again, all claims no evidence. Trump says polls deliberately skewed to Biden as a suppression tool to keep his voters at home. This ignores 2016 which had polls pointing to an easy win for Clinton. Trump then rambles on about corruption, fraud, the election being stolen from him and that he's won the election all without qualification. Then walks off taking no questions. Pence nowhere to be seen, btw. Nothing was going to surprise me in this election and I'm not surprised Trump is a bad loser but watching him make his barely coherent list of unsubstantiated fraud and corruption accusations is still surreal. What a meltdown.

[Froggy]

Who is your information source, Froggy? A lot of insight there on what is and isn't statistically possible in local American jurisdictions.

Just watched Trump give his latest press conference. Again, all claims no evidence. Trump says polls deliberately skewed to Biden as a suppression tool to keep his voters at home. This ignores 2016 which had polls pointing to an easy win for Clinton. Trump then rambles on about corruption, fraud, the election being stolen from him and that he's won the election all without qualification. Then walks off taking no questions. Pence nowhere to be seen, btw. Nothing was going to surprise me in this election and I'm not surprised Trump is a bad loser but watching him make his barely coherent list of unsubstantiated fraud and corruption accusations is still surreal. What a meltdown.

It's the election maps and registered voters. For example PA gave the total votes they had in philly and whaddya know? They pause start losing and now there happens to be more and more votes coming in to the total when they already had the vote total election night after polls closed, they themselves informed people of the total. So you have counties reporting their vote totals, you have historical and voter registration numbers and then you have the trends. Hence the only way to lose at the time of pausing the counts in those states was a complete and utter massive reversal of the trend, against all postal votes counted so far, all in person ones and what happens? A completely impossible thing, 100% dumps for one candidate consistently once recounts being, massive ones in several states at 4am. Look at PA now, there wasn't enough votes left for them to win and even on MSNBC they were like this would be basically impossible as he'd have to get 75% of the remaining votes and there's been so many counted that the trend is not an outlier you've got 6million roughly going the same way and suddenly woah, its going 80%+ one way with big dumps of 50k 100% for Biden which is simply not possible. In VA you have districts that voted +17 for republican but Biden wins +4 again not possible. Turnouts in WI are not possible, Minnesota also not possible but no one cares because it was never in play. You don't think the Trump campaign and everyone involved knows how many votes were out there? Look at Georgia, they reported how many votes were left yet Atlanta and co keep finding more votes, we are 3 days into counting and the left to count is where it was 3 days ago and they'll keep finding votes until they flip it. I can understand curing votes in Georgia as is legal up to 4 days or something after the election but that wouldn't drastically change a result at all as both sides would do it. What is not probably is them finding another what '35-50' votes over the course of an hour today when the vote total left gets low suddenly its back to 50k. They just found another 750k votes in PA, 750,000... come on man. GA in the morning was down to 25k votes to count and then by 8am was back to 60k.

[Hercy]

Who is your information source, Froggy? A lot of insight there on what is and isn't statistically possible in local American jurisdictions.

Just watched Trump give his latest press conference. Again, all claims no evidence. Trump says polls deliberately skewed to Biden as a suppression tool to keep his voters at home. This ignores 2016 which had polls pointing to an easy win for Clinton. Trump then rambles on about corruption, fraud, the election being stolen from him and that he's won the election all without qualification. Then walks off taking no questions. Pence nowhere to be seen, btw. Nothing was going to surprise me in this election and I'm not surprised Trump is a bad loser but watching him make his barely coherent list of unsubstantiated fraud and corruption accusations is still surreal. What a meltdown.

It's the election maps and registered voters. For example PA gave the total votes they had in philly and whaddya know? They pause start losing and now there happens to be more and more votes coming in to the total when they already had the vote total election night after polls closed, they themselves informed people of the total. So you have counties reporting their vote totals, you have historical and voter registration numbers and then you have the trends. Hence the only way to lose at the time of pausing the counts in those states was a complete and utter massive reversal of the trend, against all postal votes counted so far, all in person ones and what happens? A completely impossible thing, 100% dumps for one candidate consistently once recounts being, massive ones in several states at 4am. Look at PA now, there wasn't enough votes left for them to win and even on MSNBC they were like this would be basically impossible as he'd have to get 75% of the remaining votes and there's been so many counted that the trend is not an outlier you've got 6million roughly going the same way and suddenly woah, its going 80%+ one way with big dumps of 50k 100% for Biden which is simply not possible. In VA you have districts that voted +17 for republican but Biden wins +4 again not possible. Turnouts in WI are not possible, Minnesota also not possible but no one cares because it was never in play. You don't think the Trump campaign and everyone involved knows how many votes were out there? Look at Georgia, they reported how many votes were left yet Atlanta and co keep finding more votes, we are 3 days into counting and the left to count is where it was 3 days ago and they'll keep finding votes until they flip it. I can understand curing votes in Georgia as is legal up to 4 days or something after the election but that wouldn't drastically change a result at all as both sides would do it. What is not probably is them finding another what '35-50' votes over the course of an hour today when the vote total left gets low suddenly its back to 50k. They just found another 750k votes in PA, 750,000... come on man. GA in the morning was down to 25k votes to count and then by 8am was back to 60k.

OK GameHED.

[stanard]

Froggy, can you share some actual numbers and real stats legibly, rather than just random totals and % with no sources to back them up?

[Peppermint Lounge]

I've got a fired up Don Jr on TV telling me about the 'statistical impossibilities' now. Unelected Don Jr. talking about how the previous 'spineless' Republican party didn't stand up to this in previous elections but it will now. Don Jr also talking of 'fighting to the death'. The Trump family going nuclear. Will be interesting to see how it goes down with the Trump base.

[t0mby]

.

[Froggy]

Froggy, can you share some actual numbers and real stats legibly, rather than just random totals and % with no sources to back them up?

It's pretty obvious? Just go an look at turnouts in WI for one, impossible numbers. Then go and look at the ballot drops all 100% one way in those same states post election pause again impossible. Then PA just keeps 'finding' votes and the same with Georgia even after they've given the final vote amount they keep adding a lot, in PA's case what now over a million above what they said they had because they were down so much. It was already a statistical impossibility that even the very liberal pundits on MSNBC were up on their big board saying that it's highly unlikely if not impossible for that split to occur that was required but yet here we are, magically finding an enormous amount of unknown votes and Biden out of nowhere with no enthusiasm is now destroying Obama's vote record. On top of that how's it take this long to count what was purportedly the last 7% roughly in each place when you can count the first 90% in 6 hours before the required pause to strategize. Be honest with yourself, what would you think of the chances if Trump recorded multiple 100% results of huge numbers overnight in republican strong districts? Would you be oh well they are republican strongholds, I'll ignore the completely insanity of that being a legitimate result or you'd be like hmm I reckon something not quite right is going on there. Of course, any normal person would say hey that's not right what's going on? The slow walking of Arizona is ridiculous too, I don't know why, if he loses that the rest of this all goes away and they can stop printing ballots.

[Froggy]

I'll add I'm not watching any coverage, I'm watching the boards. Look at them before the pause and after and look at the % trends in those counties and what happened with the votes upon resumption being 100% one way, it's simply not possible based on in person AND mail. I'd have expected mail to be a higher % for Biden in his strongholds of course like probably 3 - 1 but then also stronger in the republics but more a 2/3. Have a look in Wayne county etc. It's the same in Milwaulkee and Philly too and surrounding counties.

[Peppermint Lounge]

Even Andrew Bolt telling Trump to STFU.

https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6207282272001" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Trump needs to 'stop recklessly claiming' he's been beaten out of a win
05/11/2020|12min
Sky News host Andrew Bolt says he hopes Donald Trump will stop “recklessly claiming” he’s been beaten out of a win, because “I can’t see any evidence of fraud” and Democracy must win.

“I hope Donald Trump will leave the White House with dignity. I hope he will leave office without trashing faith in democracy. I hope he will stop recklessly claiming he's been cheated out of a win,” Mr Bolt said.

Mr Bolt said as the results currently stand, it is almost certain that Joe Biden will become the next president of the United States.

He said Trump “shook faith” in America’s democracy with an “explosive claim, with no proof”.

The President on Wednesday morning said on he had won the election but the Democrats were going to cheat him of his victory.

“Americans and Australians have got to back off this hyper partisanship, where there only thing that counts is that your side wins,” Mr Bolt said.

“Here, democracy must win. Faith in democracy.

“And democracy is not just a system when people choose their own leaders. It is also a system where leaders agree to leave peacefully when their time is up.

“I cannot see the evidence of fraud, enough to change the election result.”

Mr Bolt said what was really at play was Trump’s great vanity which prompted him to look for a excuse to justify his losing.

“He needs his supporters to think he was robbed - not beaten,” Mr Bolt said.

“That's also because he wants them to feel a rage that will motivate them to get behind any political plans or media empire he has in mind for the next four years.

“That's good for Trump.

“But it's not good for democracy.”

[Froggy]

Lol. The numbers are so out of whack that's the reason, let alone Philly is blocking any GOP poll watchers still but sure. I mean you guys have just spent 4 years telling us all without zero evidence and now we know for a fact it was all simply made up that Russia somehow mind controlled people to vote for Trump. Now with a whole plethora of actual evidence in front of you it's nothing to see here lol.

I actually don't think a republican senate with a democrat house and presidency is bad at all, it probably will work best for the next few years because the senate republicans love selling themselves for their interet groups so things will get done.

[Twiztid Elf]

It's going to be a rough few years.
Identity politics has potential to rip the USA apart even more, and if Joe doesn't get his unrelenting and non-stop immigration of blue voters, then the red backlash that Rorschach touched on in the previous page could be severe.
I hope not.

[Ambrose Burnside]

Biden's taken the lead in Georgia.

Froggy drafting a GameHED style wall of text filled with debunked bullshittery with a sentence tacked on the end telling us he doesn't care about any of it.

[Ambrose Burnside]

Biden's taken the lead in Georgia.

And Pennsylvania

[Ambrose Burnside]

Biden currently leads the popular vote 51.4% to 48.6%. Given trends the gap should increase.

ScoMo beat Shorten 51.5% to 48.5% at the last Federal election (TPP).

[unfnknblvbl]

Philly is blocking any GOP poll watchers

They're not, and you know it.

[stanard]

Froggy, can you share some actual numbers and real stats legibly, rather than just random totals and % with no sources to back them up?

It's pretty obvious?

Then tell us the actual numbers? Not just bullshit random incoherent percentages. You're the one claiming something, it's not up to us to go figure out wtf you're trying to say.

[flipswitch]

[Ambrose Burnside]

Froggy says he's not watching any of the coverage, but still manages to parrot Trump's lies verbatim

With the same amount of supporting evidence too.

[Froggy]

Froggy, can you share some actual numbers and real stats legibly, rather than just random totals and % with no sources to back them up?

It's pretty obvious?

Then tell us the actual numbers? Not just bullshit random incoherent percentages. You're the one claiming something, it's not up to us to go figure out wtf you're trying to say.

Read this if you are seriously having issues understanding how it's mathematically clearly horseshit. Like the 27k of one way votes in Philly etc, the 4 states are outliers in multiple ways that are not possible, a similar method stands for how all of the errors are 100% also in favour of one candidate and the impossibility of that happening but here we are.

https://thewriterinblack.com/2020/11/05 ... abilities/

I didn't expect Trump to go close, thought he'd get smashed months ago but he clearly did win with the numbers on the night. Again after reading the above take into account what I was talking about earlier about the odds no one else in a random ballot from that county this comment from my link explains it to you:

"Michigan has 88 counties. Using the current vote counts, the lowest county-level vote for Trump is Washtenaw county – about 26%. Not every absentee vote is for Biden. If it was in We-Hate-Trump-Ville and all 48 people voted for Biden, I’m good with that. But even in Ann Arbor (Washtenaw County; functionally equivalent to We-Hate-Trump-Ville) 56,000 people voted for Trump. We all have our
cross to bear but 136,000 for Biden in one lump? Uh, no dude. Something like 48% of Michiganders voted for Trump. Your math is glorious AND it makes no sense on the ground either."

Now ignoring that this got rectified apparently because it was so obvious, if you can bring yourself to actually have a look it's not the only place it happened and it happened multiple times COMBINED with every glitch/mistake/100% one candidate ballot dumps being one way it's completely fucked. No one in the media seems to want to bother to investigate how 4 swing states suddenly stopped all at once and then have managed to take days to do what everyone else can handle much easier.

[stanard]

That link is almost as bad as your posts. Just random figures thrown out there with wishy washy numbers and what ifs which mean nothing.

Look, we're all old enough and smart enough here. We all know how maths and stats and probabilities work.

If you've been paying such close attention to the numbers and the ballot drops etc then surely you can layout some actual figures without the rambling?

[Froggy]

That link is almost as bad as your posts. Just random figures thrown out there with wishy washy numbers and what ifs which mean nothing.

Look, we're all old enough and smart enough here. We all know how maths and stats and probabilities work.

If you've been paying such close attention to the numbers and the ballot drops etc then surely you can layout some actual figures without the rambling?

No it's the strongest case for the numbers. Then the maths to show how improbable it is with the strongest possible base data which we know is way more than what the actual data is, therefore every case underneath that fails by larger numbers than that one. That is using the actual figures for that Michigan 4am dump. There were several across those 4 states, all one way, all 100% again you have data already there for those counties which is magically reversed after the unexplained pause (not sure election counting has ever paused on election night before let alone in 4 states). Just run the same test with the WI dump, the PY ones the Georgia ones.

Figure out the odds of the 138k ballots coming in WI that flipped it at 4am at ~96% Biden. Which makes even less sense when you breakdown across precincts and you already have a a huge amount of data everywhere of returns before the absentees.

If you don't think fraud is possible in Michigan check out what happened when Clinton demanded a recount there last election, with some of those fuck ups they aren't sending their best to start with so it's no shock D'Shawna with her huge fake nails accidently hit an extra 0 on one upload and didn't realise.

[flipswitch]

[t0mby]

I don't understand how some states take so long to count the votes. Why are they still waiting? Surely they all have the same amount of time.

[F for Fake]

Maybe coz the ballots look like this

[t0mby]

This 1min video sums it up.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Jim_Jordan/s ... b.co.nz%2F" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And from the comments.....