2006 NRL Finals Series

Candy Arse · Post by **Candy Arse** » 03 Sep 2006 06:26 pm

It's September, the best time of the year for League fans! Time to sort out the men from the boys. As everyone can expect I'm as excited as a dog in a hubcap factory. All games live on 9.

Friday Night 8pm kickoff -

Newcastle Knights vs Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

Saturday Night 6:30pm kickoff -

Brisbane Broncos vs St George-Illawarra Dragons

Saturday Night 8:30pm kickoff -

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs vs Canberra Raiders

Sunday Afternoon 4pm kickoff -

Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels

For mine......

Contenders:

Melbourne - the best team all year. The most consistent team all year. The everything all year. Finished the season on top by a mile and deserve to be premiership favourites. However in my mind there are still questions with them regarding their ability to aim up in the big crunch September games. However the only way to answer those questions is to win the big crunch September games. In the three previous years they've won their first finals match and been owned in the second. I get the feeling this year might be different. Bellamy will have to keep an eye on Billy Slater though. As good as he is, he's proven that he can suffer from extreme moments of madness that could cost a team a big game.

Brisbane - yes that's right, the fuckos. A month ago I was giddy with the thought that they were slip sliding away again, but that's changed with three weeks of scintillating football. The pack is playing like men posessed, Lockyer isn't missing a beat, Berrigan has really responded at hooker this time, Perry is proving to be a good foil for Lockyer at halfback, and Hodges is on fire at fullback despite having an average game today. However I do think Khunt is a big defensive weakness on the wing, one that needs to be exploited.

Canterbury - yeah they've lost three in a row, but they've got the best pack in the NRL even with Asotasi out. Mason is back from suspension as of next weekend. They've got premiership winning experience in the backline, forwards and coaching positions. Sonny-Bill for once isn't injured and is probably the biggest wildcard as far as players go in the finals. However if their forward pack can't lay a platform I don't think they'll be able to do much. Also Matt Utai is a gigantic liability - prone to brain explosions and dumb defensive decisions. He's also a midget and as the Cowboys showed in 04 can be utterly owned under the high ball. If the pack performs like they have this season apart from the last three weeks, everyone is in deep shit.

Pretenders -

Manly - they're a finals-quality team who deserve to be there. However if the Storm and Broncos are currently A-grade teams, Manly would be a B+. They can hang with them, but when push comes to shove I don't think they've got what it takes to win the biggest games under the biggest pressure. However they do have a great forward pack and a lethal backline. Bell and Matai in the centres are as dangerous as any pair in the NRL. However I have major questions about Matt Orford's ability to win big games. His career MO so far has been to fold, or just disappear, when he's been needed the most. The presence of Ben Kennedy though gives them a sense of legitimacy.

St George-Illawarra - i've listed them as contenders for the past two years. I'm not falling for their shit again. Probably the best team on paper and a team who could smash the shit out of everyone with the talent they've got. However they are woefully undercoached and it shows. Also I don't think they can do shit in the finals unless Matt Head is playing and playing well. If they have to rely on Barrett they're absolutely goneburger. They could do something, but I doubt it. They're not even in good form going into this finals series. I smell a backdoor exit for the Dragons.

Canberra - i love my team, but I'm not blinded by my love. I'm actually tempted to list them as the dark horses, but as long as the Storm are in the finals, we're not going to win. We've beaten every team in the 8 this season bar Melbourne and Newcastle, and I think we can still beat the Knights. More than any other team Canberra has the ability to play up or down to a team's level, and I expect them to perform most admirably this month even if they go one-and-done. They've got real size in the forwards, an exciting young backline lead by a chain-smoking 50 year old and sadly a coach who is a product of the Brian Smith system and hasn't won a finals game in his tenure as Raiders coach. Though I suspect that will change next weekend, but if they do manage to win a game, they're out the week after. Any team playing them better hope it doesn't go to golden point however.

Parramatta - Nathan Cayless is back for next weekend which is great news for Eels fans, but I suspect they've just run out of puff. A 9-game winning streak is fantastic, but when you had to climb from the cellar to the top 8 it's going to take a toll sooner or later. Had they secured a top 4 spot I suspect they could have done something, but they've drawn the spot no-one wants next weekend with a trip to Melbourne. Team 8 has never beaten team 1, and that won't change next Sunday. However in the best interests of the sport, I hope they lead by 30 at half-time and then lose.

Dark Horse:

Newcastle - Andrew Johns. The one team most likely to either score 50 points, or concede 50 points. Securing a home final is huge since they have arguably the biggest home-ground advantage in the NRL. Also Andrew Johns.

My initial leanings for next weekend -

Newcastle to win in a close yet high-scoring affair
Broncos to put the cleaners through the Dragons
Raiders to pull off the upset over the cap cheating rapists
Storm to put Parra away in the second half

Thoughts please, gents.

Candy Arse · Post by **Candy Arse** » 03 Sep 2006 06:29 pm

Also I'm picking a Storm/Broncos Grand Final, with Brisbane finally losing one in what I believe would be a true classic.

pilonv1 · Post by **pilonv1** » 03 Sep 2006 06:59 pm

Storm/Knights grand final. Out of the final 8, the Storm are the only certainties in my eyes to make it. Everyone else is either too inconsistent (Aints, Eels, Raiders) or lacking the talent to make it all the way (Eagles & injured Dogs). Brisbane have looked great with Hodges at fullback but I think their forwards will get worn out by the younger and more mobile packs they will meet after week one.

jizzlobber · Post by **jizzlobber** » 03 Sep 2006 07:30 pm

I think storm will be playing either newcastle or brisbane.
I can't see the other sides getting there, many people think the doggies will go all the way but they haven't impressed recently.

AgOnNy · Post by **AgOnNy** » 03 Sep 2006 08:30 pm

Brisbane/Storm Grand Final would be awesome and played in Sydney!!!

Somethign tells me that if brisbane stay clear of injuries... they will be the premiers of 2006... heres hoping so.

jizzlobber · Post by **jizzlobber** » 03 Sep 2006 08:43 pm

fuck that

Arthas · Post by **Arthas** » 03 Sep 2006 09:09 pm

AgOnNy wrote:Brisbane/Storm Grand Final would be awesome and played in Sydney!!!

Somethign tells me that if brisbane stay clear of injuries... they will be the premiers of 2006... heres hoping so.

I agree that a Broncos/Storm grand final would be awesome and hope the Broncos get up and win it for the Warhorse Webcke.

You gotta say the Storm will be there, they should be there in the Grand final based on the season they've had. Knights/Broncos probably look the best chance at joining them. I think the Raiders are a chance at upsetting the doggies though which would be great to see

mxlegend99 · Post by **mxlegend99** » 03 Sep 2006 11:45 pm

IMO the 3 teams to watch are:
Storm (Duh)
Brisbane.
Knights.

Bulldogs, IMO are a fuckall chance. Panthers forwards smashed the shit out of them... that's without Clinton (usually one of our best), Rodney and Cross. Mason will pick it up a bit... but given it's their forwards that pave the way. Storm can contain them, and the Broncos and Knights could steamroll them. I know they are better then this usually. But still... they are a bit overrated. O'Meley was good. SBW was very average... as were the rest. Myles was made too look like a bitch on a few occassions. Granted our boys are pretty big and can hit hard when they want... but so are Knights, Broncos, Raiders etc. Dogs pack might be mostly rep players... but when you take out 1 or 2, they get very thin in forwards really quickly.

Dragons, well - you said it. The best team on paper. But they don't play that way. I'd give my left nut just to have Gasnier and Cooper in my team... i know we'd easily be scoring far more tries. Their halves are good (on paper), fullback/wingers are solid. Forwards and bench are fucking ace. Just the all-star team. But they can't win shit when it comes to finals. I'd love them to change that... as i quiet like them. But to be honest... i just can't see it.

Raiders - Had they been top 4 they'd be a real threat. I think they could shake the Doggies up a bit... and they have done brilliant to get where they are. Hats off to them, but the other teams have too many stars and more chances to win it then these guys. Don't be shoked to see the Doggies have to play go to week 2 due to a loss to these fellas though.

Eels - Too many injuries. Not good enough against a form team or hard hitting team. Great effort though. Seriously. 9 wins in a row is superb. And these guys making the 8 was incredible. They showed a lot of guts and didn't quit. Although Tim Smith IMO is way overrated and the wrong fellas are missing for them. Tahu might be back, same with Cayless. But to be honest... Tahu isn't required with their backline. It's really good already, he will barely improve it. Cayless is really needed... but he can't make up a ~20 point difference IMO.

Sea Eagles - Fucking Shit. If they win it, it will be off the back of dodgy refereeing decisions.

IMO, a Knights/Broncos Grand Final is a good possibility. Unless they meet before then. Storm have been great, but an inform Knights and Broncos could match the backs and top the forwards IMO.

Joey vs Lockyer

I kinda want to see it.

This is assuming Knights come back with the form they had against Cowboys and Panthers without Joey, then throw Joey in the mix and get some sort of super team

If they all figure he's back, we don't need to play as hard, Manly will smash them first game. I'm expecting those wins without him to be a revival of the Knights to early season form though.

mxlegend99 · Post by **mxlegend99** » 03 Sep 2006 11:53 pm

Wait... BK was out against the Storm wasn't he? If so... Manly *might* have a bit more to give. Although god i hope not.

westical · Post by **westical** » 10 Sep 2006 01:04 am

Well we sure fooled you guys didn't we!

Candy Arse · Post by **Candy Arse** » 10 Sep 2006 09:22 am

Yes. Your team are frauds and next week they should sack Bennett.