ACT Election

[Twit]

The ACT is a strange place...

Labor got a +1.7 swing. That might seem weird given how poor the ALP looks across the country, but it makes more sense when you see that the Greens have -4.6 swing against them and the independents -3.6. The big news though is that the Libs have, against predictions, gained a +6.4 swing and look like having the most seats! Wow.

So Labor got the highest primary vote but only 7 seats, Liberals got the most seats with 8 likely, and the Greens (who got smashed compared to the last election) will be just as powerful anyway because they will hold the balance - just, with probably the remaining 2 seats.

It's not all final though. What I would love to see is for that one final seat to go to a crazy independent (as that would probably mean they'd support the Libs). Then it would be ALP 7 + Greens 1 versus Libs 8 + Independent 1. That could result in some good comedy over the next few years...

[Shaneus]

What's an ACT? Is that like a Tasmania?

[Twit]

It's like a Tasmania, only smaller and more pretentious.

[guttermouth]

And they still have Aboriginals in ACT, unlike Tasmania, just ask Mundine

[pilonv1]

And they still have Aboriginals in ACT, unlike Tasmania, just ask Mundine

[Megaman]

What I would love to see is for that one final seat to go to a crazy independent

Would be awesome since the guy who runs Summernats is best placed to be that crazy independent.

[Twit]

I wonder if the independents (or minors) shoot themselves in the foot by trying to field too many candidates? I'm guessing that confuses people because they don't know which to choose and might have preferences back and forth between parties. It's all about profile and a recognisable name in this setup - they shouldn't dilute it. Maybe the Motorist Party should've gone with just Chic Henry in Ginnindera? They probably didn't help their cause by being a bit racist too. Bullet Train mob did surprisingly well. I reckon the Pirate Party would've done well too if they'd managed to get registered in time.

I see a big rebuke of the Greens which is also surprising for a place like Canberra, but unfortunately I doubt they will see it that way themselves. They'll probably see the swing to Labor as them taking more credit or something stupid, and will attempt to wield even more influence. Libs did well but ultimately they only get to take their bat and ball and go home. The only way to beat the Greens / Labor is with one or two prominent minor candidates who lean right but not too far right.

[Megaman]

It may be that if you only run one candidate you get tucked away in some corner of the ballot paper, because every 'party' seems to have run at least two candidates. Maybe Chic should have run in Molonglo where you need fewer votes to get up.

[Twit]

Although it will be awhile before everything is final, it sounds like everyone expects it to remain as it currently stands and that Chic Henry isn’t going to beat Meredith Hunter in Ginninderra. Which seems weird given how close they are in a PvP sense, but it’s the quota that will do it.

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http://www.electionresults.act.gov.au/p ... party.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So:

• It will be ALP + Greens 9 vs Libs 8.
• Unlike federal politics, the speaker in the ACT Legislative Assembly gets a vote. And even a second vote if there’s a deadlock.
• Unlike federal politics, if a member dies of shame then they count back and likely another member of same party will get up.
• Given the above, a slender majority is still very stable. There will be no bringing anything down.

If the Libs can’t win with this result then it’s hard to see them ever winning. They need some sort of...I dunno - a credible alternative party that isn’t as loopy left as the Greens. A party that would likely sit in the centre and back whichever main party had the most seats and just keep them honest. I remember there being such a thing in the distant past.

[Peppermint Lounge]

The Greens' exodus continues, due unfortunately to an ongoing penchant of the Left ie: a clockwork like precision at ideologically disappearing up one's own arse.

[Froggy]

You are assuming the Liberals really give a toss about governing over the ACT. I'm sure they have real states to manage then when Canberrians get their bins collected. This election says one thing if the coalition can get 8 seats and a near majority vote in the most diehard labor/greens zone on the planet then the Labor brand right now is toxic.

[Hercy]

It is funny that in a territory where 40% of the workforce is employed by the government, that so many people vote Liberal. I guess most of them have Commonwealth jobs so they don't see it as voting against their interests.

[Twit]

You are assuming the Liberals really give a toss about governing over the ACT. I'm sure they have real states to manage then when Canberrians get their bins collected. This election says one thing if the coalition can get 8 seats and a near majority vote in the most diehard labor/greens zone on the planet then the Labor brand right now is toxic.

I don’t think that’s the case at all - I think the election was all about local issues and federal involvement was unwelcome. I voted mostly for Libs based on classic “roads, rates, and rubbish” rationale:

• Roads: I’m a little bit lefty but not to the extent that the ALP+Greens want me to be. I didn’t like the removal of plastic bags – that was tokenistic backwards nanny stuff. I don’t think 90% renewable by 2020 is in any way achievable or warranted. And I don’t want light rail or cycle paths or having to wishfully think my way to work on a fluffy cloud of wellbeing. Fix roads and gimme parking spaces.
• Rates: I just bought a house recently and paid full stamp duty, then they abolished stamp duty in favour of higher rates so I’ll be right in the most double-slugged category. I didn’t particularly like the “Labor will triple your rates” campaign but in the end it’s true enough for me.
• Rubbish: I want a green waste bin!

In fact, Zed tried to hide Abbott away during the campaign and the only time he did come out it was negative because he reminded Canberrans of how great it was when Howard took an axe to the place and sent its economy into a nosedive and how he’d like to do that again soon thanks.

It is funny that in a territory where 40% of the workforce is employed by the government, that so many people vote Liberal. I guess most of them have Commonwealth jobs so they don't see it as voting against their interests.

When you get right down to it, there’s really not much difference between the two in that regard.

[Hercy]

I voted mostly for Libs

Please hand in your Loony Left membership card at our next monthly meeting.

[BruceCamblzChin]

The Greens' exodus continues, due unfortunately to an ongoing penchant of the Left ie: a clockwork like precision at ideologically disappearing up one's own arse.

Is there anything that we can do to speed up this process?

[Twit]

The talk now is 8, 8, 1. Doesn't change the outcome, but if Greens can only manage 1 seat in Canberra they'll look pretty dopey.

[Madmya]

The Greens' exodus continues, due unfortunately to an ongoing penchant of the Left ie: a clockwork like precision at ideologically disappearing up one's own arse.

People I know who generally don't care about voting and want to throw their vote away without actually 'donkeying' would vote Greens. I wonder if this is a consequence of Greens essentially deciding government and the carbon tax at the last federal election. Same thing with independents via the three dickheads (I can't remember all of their names, Oakshott, Windsor... dickheads is easier).

[Peppermint Lounge]

The Greens' exodus continues, due unfortunately to an ongoing penchant of the Left ie: a clockwork like precision at ideologically disappearing up one's own arse.

Is there anything that we can do to speed up this process?

Encourage them to give more airtime to Sarah Hanson-Young. It was my hearing her most recent doorstop that prompted my crankiness.